In a notable diplomatic move, a delegation from Pakistan is set to visit Jammu and Kashmir this week, marking the first such visit since 2019. This visit is part of the ongoing Neutral Expert proceedings initiated by India in response to disputes surrounding the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric power projects. The delegation’s mission will span a 12-day period commencing on June 17, 2024, and it holds significant implications for the bilateral Indus Water Treaty, which has been a focal point of contention between the two nations.

The Indus Water Treaty, signed in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank, allocated the waters of the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. It has been a crucial instrument for managing water sharing between the two countries, despite periods of heightened tensions and conflicts. The treaty established mechanisms for dispute resolution, including provisions for arbitration and the appointment of neutral experts.

The current disputes revolve around two hydroelectric projects – Kishenganga and Ratle. Pakistan raised objections regarding the design and operation of these projects, claiming that they violate the treaty’s provisions concerning the flow of waters allocated to Pakistan under the treaty. These objections prompted India to invoke the dispute settlement mechanisms outlined in the treaty, leading to the appointment of a Neutral Expert to assess the issues.

The journey towards this upcoming visit has been characterized by complex legal processes and diplomatic maneuvers spanning several years.

Pakistan initially objected to the design features of the Kishenganga and Ratle projects, seeking resolution through the intervention of a Neutral Expert. India, however, preferred adjudication through a Court of Arbitration. After failed negotiations, the World Bank appointed both a Neutral Expert and a chair for the Court of Arbitration in October 2022, reflecting the seriousness and complexity of the disputes.

The Court of Arbitration ruled in July 2023 that it had the competence to consider and determine Pakistan’s disputes, despite India’s refusal to participate in its proceedings. Pakistan submitted its first Memorial outlining its legal case in March of the same year. Meanwhile, India opted to engage with the Neutral Expert, submitting its own Memorial in August 2023. These parallel processes underscored the divergent approaches taken by the two countries in resolving the disputes.

In preparation for the Neutral Expert’s assessment, procedural developments included the organization of site visits to relevant hydroelectric plants. Pakistan’s delegation made significant preparations, participating in discussions held by the Neutral Expert in Vienna in September 2023 to plan the logistics and scope of the upcoming site visit. This meticulous planning aimed to ensure a comprehensive evaluation of the disputed projects during the delegation’s stay in Jammu and Kashmir.

The upcoming visit of the Pakistani delegation holds profound significance in several dimensions. It marks a resumption of direct engagement between Pakistan and India on issues related to water sharing, despite strained bilateral relations in other domains. The fact that both countries have adhered to the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanisms demonstrates a commitment to international agreements and norms.

The delegation’s inspection of the Kishenganga and Ratle projects will involve technical assessments of the infrastructure and environmental impact studies. These evaluations are crucial for understanding the practical implications of the projects on water flow and environmental sustainability in the region.

The findings of the Neutral Expert will carry legal weight in determining whether India’s actions regarding the hydroelectric projects comply with the Indus Water Treaty. The assessment will influence future decisions and interpretations related to water management and dispute resolution mechanisms under international law.

While the visit represents a step forward in resolving specific disputes, broader challenges remains the same. The longstanding territorial disputes and geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan cast a shadow over cooperative efforts such as those mandated by the Indus Water Treaty. The success of the upcoming visit will depend on maintaining a delicate balance between technical assessments and political sensitivities.

Hydroelectric projects can have significant environmental impacts, affecting ecosystems and local communities. The delegation’s assessment will need to take into account these broader environmental considerations to ensure sustainable development practices.

The outcomes of the Neutral Expert’s findings will set precedents for future interpretations of the Indus Water Treaty. Clear and transparent rulings will be essential in upholding the integrity of international agreements and fostering trust between the riparian states.