A new global analysis has revealed that countries’ climate pledges depend on securing more than one billion hectares of land—an area larger than Australia—to deliver promised carbon removals. The findings, released at the 30th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) in Brazil, warn that this dependence could displace communities, threaten food systems and undermine efforts to protect existing forests.

The Land Gap 2025 Report, produced by an international research consortium, argues that many governments are relying heavily on large-scale tree planting, bioenergy crops and carbon capture schemes to meet Net Zero targets. This reliance, the report states, risks delaying real emissions reductions by diverting attention and resources away from natural forest protection and restoration.

According to the analysis, extensive land-based carbon removal projects are being treated as substitutes for rapid fossil fuel phase-down. The report emphasises that mature forests already provide crucial climate regulation services that cannot be replaced by new plantations. Yet many national climate plans continue to prioritise speculative land-intensive technologies over proven conservation strategies.

Two Growing Gaps in Global Climate Planning

The report identifies two widening gaps that threaten global climate ambitions.

The first is a “land gap”—the difference between the vast land area required for planned carbon removal and the land that is realistically available. Many national climate pledges include large-scale afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), both of which would demand land on a scale that competes directly with agricultural production and human settlements.

The second is a “forest gap”, the mismatch between global commitments to end deforestation by 2030 and the likely outcomes under current policies. Even if existing pledges are fully implemented, the report projects that up to four million hectares of forest could be lost each year by 2030, with an additional sixteen million hectares likely to be degraded through logging, mining and industrial agriculture.

These gaps, the authors conclude, reflect deeply rooted systemic pressures within the global economy.

Economic Structures Driving Forest Loss

Beyond inadequate climate finance, the study highlights structural economic factors as central drivers of deforestation. These include sovereign debt burdens, revenue losses caused by tax evasion and profit shifting, and international trade systems that prioritise large-scale commodity production.

The report notes that many countries are compelled to expand exports of agricultural commodities such as soy, beef and palm oil to meet debt obligations. This dynamic accelerates forest conversion and undermines conservation commitments. Weak tax systems and illicit financial flows further constrain public budgets, limiting the ability of governments to invest in sustainable land management.

Trade rules, the analysis argues, often reinforce these pressures by rewarding high-volume production while providing insufficient safeguards for ecosystems and smallholder communities. As a result, forest loss continues even in nations that have adopted ambitious climate targets on paper.

Reforms Proposed to Bridge the Gap

To reduce the pressure on forests, the report proposes a series of economic and governance reforms aimed at aligning climate action with social and ecological resilience. These include:

• Debt restructuring and relief, enabling developing economies to reduce dependence on deforestation-driven commodity exports.
• Reinforced tax and financial transparency measures to curb illicit financial flows and increase public revenues for sustainable development.
• Revisions to trade rules to prioritise sustainable food systems, local livelihoods and forest conservation.

The analysis also evaluates new climate finance mechanisms. While emerging initiatives dedicated to forest conservation could generate up to USD 4 billion annually, the report estimates that between USD 117 billion and USD 299 billion per year will be required to meet global forest protection targets by 2030. Current funding levels, it warns, remain far below what is needed.

The authors argue that closing this financial gap is critical for ensuring that climate commitments do not rely on unrealistic land-use assumptions.

Forests as Essential Climate Infrastructure

The report concludes that the pathway to Net Zero cannot be paved with land targets that exceed ecological and social limits. Instead, the analysis calls for a shift towards policies that prioritise the protection of existing forests, strengthen community land rights and accelerate emissions reductions at their source.

According to the findings, forests must be treated as essential climate infrastructure—integral to biodiversity, water security, cultural continuity and planetary stability. Large-scale plantations and unproven carbon removal technologies, the report warns, cannot compensate for the loss of intact ecosystems.

As the international community debates climate ambition at COP30, the report delivers an unequivocal message: global climate goals will remain out of reach unless forest protection is placed at the centre of national and international policy, and unless the economic forces driving deforestation are fundamentally reformed.