Tehran is confronting one of the most severe water crises in its history as prolonged drought, record-breaking heat, and years of inadequate resource management converge to push its reservoirs to dangerously low levels. The city’s primary water sources have been shrinking at an alarming rate, with the Amir Kabir Dam — a critical component of the capital’s supply system — holding only a small fraction of its usual capacity. The situation has raised fears that the capital could face a dramatic shortfall in drinking water within weeks if current trends persist.

Drought Deepens, Reservoirs Empty

At the heart of the crisis lies a devastating six-year drought that has gripped much of the country. Extended periods of minimal rainfall, coupled with summers marked by temperatures soaring above 50°C in some regions, have left Tehran’s water infrastructure under unprecedented strain. By early November, official data showed that rainfall in Tehran province had plunged to just 2.3 mm — an extraordinary 81 percent decline compared to long-term averages. These conditions have crippled the natural replenishment of the city’s crucial reservoirs.

Tehran depends on five main dams — Amir Kabir, Lar, Latyan, Taleqan, and Mamloo — for its water supply. However, combined storage levels among these reservoirs have fallen drastically, hovering around only 10 to 11 percent of total capacity. The Amir Kabir Dam, once a stable water source for the capital, has experienced one of the steepest declines. Its storage has dropped from 86 million cubic meters the previous year to roughly 14 million cubic meters, underscoring the severity of the crisis.

Taps Running Dry and Pressure Drops

Signs of the unfolding crisis are increasingly visible across the city. Water pressure reductions have become common, particularly during evening hours when demand typically rises. In several districts, residents have reported moments when water flow ceases altogether. These intermittent disruptions illustrate the widening gap between supply and demand.

In response, authorities have called for urgent conservation efforts. Residents have been asked to reduce consumption by significant margins, while water management agencies attempt to prevent a complete breakdown of supply. Rather than implementing strict rationing measures, officials have opted for demand-management strategies aimed at reducing pressure on the system. Nonetheless, concerns are mounting that more restrictive measures could soon become necessary if water levels continue to decline.

Mismanagement, Overuse, and Groundwater Decline

Although climate-induced drought has played a major role, decades of institutional shortcomings have compounded Tehran’s vulnerability. The country’s agricultural sector consumes more than 90 percent of available freshwater, often through inefficient and water-intensive methods. Widespread overuse of groundwater — frequently unregulated — has further undermined the city’s water security.

This unsustainable extraction has triggered significant land subsidence. Large areas of Tehran are sinking as aquifers are depleted faster than they can naturally recharge. Subsidence not only threatens critical infrastructure but also reduces the long-term viability of groundwater as an emergency buffer source.

Political Alarm and Dire Warnings

Government institutions have acknowledged the escalating risks, issuing warnings that without substantial rainfall before winter, the capital may be forced to implement large-scale rationing and possibly even partial evacuations in some districts. These warnings have intensified public concern, emphasizing that Tehran has entered a critical period where every drop of water counts.

Amid the crisis, proposals have emerged suggesting that the capital may need to be relocated to coastal areas where water resources are more abundant. The idea reflects growing recognition that Tehran’s geographic and demographic pressures, combined with diminishing water reserves, challenge the sustainability of maintaining the city as the administrative center in the long term.

Short-Term Measures and Long-Term Risks

Authorities have scrambled to introduce short-term mitigation measures. Water pressure has been reduced city-wide, public swimming pools have been shuttered, and some government offices have been temporarily closed to curb consumption. Public advisories now emphasize the importance of minimizing household water use.

Despite these steps, analysts argue that such actions merely buy time and cannot resolve the deeper structural issues underlying the crisis. Long-term solutions will require significant investment in modern water infrastructure, improved groundwater recharge systems, enhanced data monitoring, and stronger public engagement in conservation efforts. A transition from supply-driven management to a resilience-oriented approach is increasingly viewed as essential.

A Crisis Beyond Just Water

The implications of Tehran’s water crisis extend far beyond the immediate threat to drinking supplies. Electricity generation has been disrupted as power plants struggle without adequate water for cooling. Worsening land subsidence threatens roads, buildings, pipelines, and public utilities. The strain on essential services has eroded public confidence, contributing to broader concerns about environmental stability and government preparedness.

For the more than 10 million people who rely on Tehran’s water system, the crisis represents far more than a technical problem — it is a profound challenge to daily life, urban sustainability, and long-term survival. As the possibility of “Day Zero” draws nearer, the capital faces stark choices that may shape its future for decades to come.