Cyclone Ditwah has inflicted an estimated $4.1 billion (around Rs. 1.3 trillion) in direct physical damage across Sri Lanka, equivalent to nearly 4 per cent of the country’s GDP, according to the Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) report released by the World Bank Group. The assessment highlights the scale of destruction caused by one of the most intense cyclones in Sri Lanka’s recent history and warns that total recovery and reconstruction needs will be significantly higher than the current estimate.

The cyclone affected nearly two million people and about 500,000 families across all 25 districts, disrupting livelihoods, housing, agriculture, and essential services nationwide. The GRADE estimate focuses solely on direct physical damage to assets such as buildings, infrastructure, and agriculture. It does not include income losses, business interruption, or the full costs of recovery, reconstruction, and resilience-building, which are expected to substantially raise the overall financial burden.

The Central Province emerged as the hardest-hit region, with damages in Kandy District alone estimated at $689 million, driven largely by severe flooding and landslides. Other districts across the island also experienced extensive destruction, underscoring the nationwide reach of the cyclone.

Infrastructure sustained the greatest losses, accounting for an estimated $1.735 billion, or 42 per cent of total damages. Roads, bridges, railways, and water supply networks were heavily affected, disrupting transport, market access, and the delivery of basic services. Damage to infrastructure has had cascading effects on economic activity and access to healthcare, education, and clean water, particularly in rural and flood-prone areas.

Residential buildings and household contents suffered damages estimated at $985 million, reflecting the widespread impact on housing. Large numbers of homes were damaged or destroyed by flooding and high winds, highlighting long-standing challenges related to settlement patterns, floodplain development, drainage systems, and the resilience of housing design in cyclone-prone regions.

The agriculture sector recorded an estimated $814 million in damage, affecting paddy fields, vegetable cultivation, maize, livestock, farm infrastructure, and inland fisheries. These losses pose serious risks to food security and rural livelihoods, especially in communities already vulnerable to climate shocks and economic stress. Damage to irrigation systems and farm assets is expected to prolong recovery for smallholder farmers and agricultural workers.

Non-residential buildings, including schools, hospitals, businesses, factories, and other facilities, accounted for approximately $562 million in damages. Many of these structures are located along major rivers and waterways, where flooding was most intense. The destruction has interrupted education, healthcare delivery, and industrial and commercial activity, further slowing local and regional economic recovery.

The assessment also points to the role of pre-existing socio-economic vulnerabilities in amplifying the cyclone’s impacts. Poverty, limited access to services, and high exposure to climate risks are expected to slow recovery, particularly for women, children, older persons, and female-headed households. In several of the hardest-hit districts, a significant share of households were already economically vulnerable before the cyclone, increasing the risk of long-term displacement and loss of livelihoods.

In response to the disaster, the World Bank Group has mobilised up to $120 million from ongoing projects to support early recovery efforts. These funds are being directed toward restoring essential services and infrastructure, including healthcare, water supply, education, agriculture, and transport connectivity in the most affected areas. However, the GRADE report stresses that comprehensive recovery strategies will be required to address humanitarian needs, rebuild livelihoods, and strengthen climate-resilient infrastructure.

Parallel assessments highlight the cyclone’s severe impact on employment and incomes. A new brief by the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that around 374,000 workers were employed in areas directly affected by floods and landslides following Cyclone Ditwah, which made landfall on 26 November. If these workers are unable to return to work or find alternative employment, potential income losses could reach $48 million per month.

The agriculture and fisheries sectors have been particularly affected. Flooding impacted up to 23 per cent of rice-cultivating land, while preliminary estimates suggest tea industry output losses of up to 35 per cent. Smallholder farmers, who contribute roughly 70 per cent of tea sector output, have been disproportionately affected, raising concerns about household incomes and export earnings.

The ILO brief calls for immediate livelihood support measures, including emergency cash assistance and employment-intensive recovery programmes that ensure decent working conditions. It also emphasizes targeted support for micro, small, and medium enterprises to help restore production and employment. Over the medium term, the brief highlights the need to strengthen coordination between social protection systems, employment policies, and disaster risk management frameworks to improve resilience to future shocks.

The GRADE assessment, conducted using rapid, remote, model-based methodology, was completed in close collaboration with Sri Lankan government institutions and supported by international partners. While it provides a timely snapshot of direct damages, authorities and development partners acknowledge that full recovery and reconstruction costs are likely to exceed current estimates, reinforcing the urgency of sustained financial, technical, and policy support to rebuild stronger and more resilient communities across Sri Lanka.