Rising global temperatures driven by human-induced climate change are placing mounting pressure on coffee-growing regions worldwide, threatening crop yields, farmer incomes, and consumer prices, according to a new analysis by Climate Central.

The report finds that key coffee-producing countries are experiencing a significant increase in the number of extremely hot days that are harmful to coffee plants. Between 2021 and 2025, 25 countries responsible for producing nearly all of the world’s coffee recorded an average of 47 additional days per year of heat exceeding critical thresholds for coffee cultivation.

The situation is even more pronounced in the five countries that account for roughly three-quarters of global coffee production — Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia. These nations experienced an average of 57 additional days annually above temperature levels considered damaging to coffee crops during the same period.

According to the analysis, temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius are extremely harmful to arabica coffee plants, the variety that accounts for approximately 60–70 percent of global production. Arabica is prized for its smoother flavor and dominates specialty coffee markets. Robusta coffee, which makes up most of the remaining global output and is typically used in instant coffee and espresso blends, is somewhat more heat-tolerant but still performs poorly under sustained high temperatures.

The researchers assessed how many days each year would likely have remained below the 30-degree Celsius threshold in a world without global warming but instead surpassed that mark under present climate conditions. Their findings suggest that human-driven warming has substantially increased the frequency of damaging heat events in coffee-growing areas.

The study comes amid broader scientific warnings that the world has experienced the three hottest years on record in recent times, largely due to the continued burning of fossil fuels and other greenhouse gas-emitting activities. Rising temperatures are not only increasing average heat levels but also intensifying extreme weather events, including droughts and irregular rainfall patterns that further strain agricultural systems.

Coffee is particularly sensitive to climatic shifts. The crop requires specific temperature ranges, consistent rainfall, and stable growing conditions. Excessive heat can reduce flowering, hinder fruit development, and affect bean quality. Over time, prolonged exposure to high temperatures can weaken plants, making them more susceptible to pests and diseases.

Climate Central warned that the consequences of rising heat in coffee-growing regions are likely to extend beyond farms. Lower yields and reduced quality can disrupt global supply chains, contributing to price volatility in international markets. The organization noted that recent increases in coffee prices worldwide have been driven at least in part by extreme weather events in producing countries. Trade policies, including tariffs on imports from major producers such as Brazil, have also influenced price trends.

For millions of smallholder farmers across Latin America, Africa, and Asia, coffee is a primary source of income. Reduced harvests due to heat stress can have significant economic and social impacts, particularly in rural communities where alternative livelihood options are limited. In some regions, farmers are already exploring adaptive strategies such as shifting cultivation to higher altitudes, planting more heat-tolerant varieties, or diversifying crops. However, such measures often require financial resources and technical support that may not be readily available.

The findings underscore the vulnerability of globally traded agricultural commodities to climate disruption. As warming continues, experts caution that coffee-growing zones could shrink or shift geographically, potentially altering long-established production landscapes.

The analysis adds to a growing body of evidence that climate change is reshaping food systems worldwide. Without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and stronger adaptation measures, researchers warn that heat stress in coffee-growing regions will intensify, placing further strain on supplies and affecting consumers’ daily routines — from farm fields to coffee cups.